It’s that time of year again, folks — predictions season! A time when good people make bad guesses about trends, after a year of struggling to say what day it is tomorrow. Undeterred, here are mine together with a reckoning about last year — which actually are 75% right. Those are my credentials, and here are the prognostications:
Startup marketer staff churn will increase
Let’s start on a personal level — today’s marketers have too much to do and are doing too much. Every aspect of marketing is more complex and requires more specialization, knowledge and coordination. At the same time, it’s more measurable, so there’s a need to perform above average across each channel. After a year of efficiency and reducing budgets (as validated in our 2024 Startup Marketer Outlook), many marketers are simply overdriven. The result? Burnout, career breaks and elevated staff churn in these positions. The average CMO tenure is already sub-24 months at large companies — it’s likely lower at startups and will get shorter still.
SEO will be just fine in the face of AI Search
ChatGPT just integrated Web search into results. Regardless of its impact on our use of Google, the best practices of SEO to create neutral, in-depth, educational content is exactly what will be surfaced by AI search. We are already seeing ChatGPT among the top referring domains for clients. That traffic is still minimal but does seem to convert, adding credence to the logic that it is highly qualified. Our own anecdotal experience has also surfaced Firebrand content within daily research around startup marketing.
ABM will face a backlash, but actually deliver
Tiresome marketing gurus love to ragebait by declaring whole marketing disciplines dead. PR seems to perish with the frequency of a fairground goldfish. Now it’s ABM’s turn to die. The reality is that more startups are adopting an ABM motion. It’s more complex than it appears and so pilots fail, fueling the backlash. However, as we learn more about correct implementation, startups will break through into strong returns.
Programmatic podcast advertising will increase
According to eMarketer, advertisers are projected to spend $2.28 billion on podcast advertising in the US in 2024. This is up from $1.9 billion in 2023, a 20% increase and is set to grow to $4 billion in 2025. However, given that overall advertising spending in the US in 2024 was $369 billion, podcast advertising is only 0.69% of the total.
Most of these ads are read by the host — that’s part of the appeal. However, to scale, they will need to become programmatic. At present, only 9% of podcast ads are delivered programmatically, but it stands to reason that to scale up, it will need to become more automated. We’re in the hand-crafted phase of podcast advertising. Get ready for it to industrialize.
The AI slop won’t stop
More specifically, it will be very hard to detect and filter AI-generated content on the web, in social posts, in comments, in emails, and everywhere really. While this pollutes marketing channels, it’s unlikely lazy marketers, loafers and ne’re-do-wells will stop. What does that mean for our heroic startup marketer fighting valiantly against this tide? Simply that cream floats, so content must be captivating, characterful and crisp.
Our hope is that AI slop is a bit like the email spam problem. There was a time when it was overwhelming, threatening a bedrock of business communication. Then, one day, it just stopped. The ML algorithms got good enough and the problem largely vanished. There are all kinds of reasons email spam is different from AI slop (not least, AI slop is trained on the entire Internet) but we can hope. Meantime, prepare to delve into a vibrant tapestry of the utmost drivel. (To quote some ChatGPT faves).
Have I played it too safe with these? Perhaps, so let’s throw in a wildcard:
AI tool Perplexity will lose the search race
To start, the citations were useful, but despite its recent funding, Perplexity isn’t at scale to compete with Google and OpenAI. The CEO doesn’t seem to understand journalism or the damage the company is doing by circumventing the very sources it relies on. I have no insights specifically into this company — just feels like something needs to change here.
OK, it’s time for the report card from last year. In 2023, I got 4 out of 5. How’s it shaping up for 2024?
✅ Twitter (X) will continue its decline — and CEO Linda Yaccarino will be out by the end of Q1 2024. Looks like Linda is going down with the ship, but the decline is evident. The Guardian is the latest to jump.
❌ Programmatic advertising will get harder as privacy measures kick in. This was predicated on Google discontinuing cookies, which they deferred.
✅ Content will get more visual and interactive. According to Marketing Scoop, 96% of marketers plan to increase their investment in interactive content in the next 12 months.
✅ B2B brands will target younger audiences on TikTok. I’d have liked to see this be more pronounced but according to Uplead, “B2B standouts like Hootsuite, Shopify, and Adobe creatively leverage TikTok and YouTube to build brand awareness and resonate with target audiences.”
Time for Nostramorganus to sign off, but let me know what you think, or what predictions you have for 2025. Whatever comes our way, we’ll be ready!
About the Author
Morgan McLintic is the founder of Firebrand. With over 25 years’ experience in the tech sector, he advises clients about their marketing and PR strategy. Prior to Firebrand, he was the founder of digital communications agency, LEWIS in the US, growing it to 250 staff and $35m revenue.
